In 2020, I realized people might be interested in detailed and timely updates using my expertise. Rather than having a barrier of needing to call for information, or do their own research, I decided to offer regular updates covering a large variety of needs.
The modeling exposes trends created by groups of traders/investors that can explain nearly 92% of price fluctuation during a year. The addition of long-term business cycles increases explanation.
Trends are cataloged and categorized according to duration, price change and importance of underlying fundamentals and economics. The variety of trends created by major market impactors can assist traders from very short-term to long-term tactics.
I find a podcast is more informative and easier to produce during fast market conditions. Video podcasts increase the subscriber confidence over a printed format.
And now, you can access all of my expertise right from your phone or computer.
Who Is The Host?
My name is Richard Posson and I’ve been a market analyst, trader and investor for nearly 30 years. With the following certification and memberships I’ve been involved in all aspects of financial and commodity markets.
- Western Governors University: B.S., Business Marketing Management; SUNY A.S. Agriculture Business; SUNY: Economics of Deregulation of Energy and Transportation
- Gold Gate University: Certification- Wykoff/Behavioral Finance with Henry Pruden, PHD
- Knowledge of swaps per ISDA; Risk per Garp; National Grain and Feed Association
- Series 3 registered 1989-2015
Analyst and trader for a commodity newsletter/advisor, ethanol producer and global grain firms.
Analysis of macro-economics and financial markets were provided to corporate executives, market analysis signals, risk management, trading system design provided to corporate traders.
Today: Manage stock index investments for Friends & Family; manage a hedge fund for friends and family; sell the Critical Point podcast with signals, alerts for professional and individual traders, hedgers, economists, investors.
As I studied the market I developed several systems and methods. I developed the Cycle Series Analysis (CSA) as a method of price analysis. It also applies to production, supply, demand, macro-economy, and climate impact of crops. A CSA model can isolate short- to long-term trends that offer high probability rate of change and length of trend. In addition, the model integrates these trends for a complete explanation of short- to long-term price fluctuation. A model can be used for trend following, timing of start and end of trends, and for trading system development. It works with intra-day to long-term point of views.
- Called the mid-1990s grains bull market; followed be a devastating bear market for producers until a correctly called super-cycle bottom in 2005 with a correct forecast for a record price no later than 2008. Called 2010-12 crop problems and price bull markets. Called 2017 and 2019 crop events. Forecast years in advance for a significant bull market by 2021.
- Called the 2002 low for the stock market. Warned of a super-cycle downturn 2008-09. Called a major long-term bottom March 2009. From that call, I was bullish the stock market into 2018-20 when expectations were of an economic recession and bear market for equities.
- Called a super-cycle bottom in interest rates in August 2020. Rates rose from August 2020 to June 2021.
- March 25 2020, I called a major long-term bottom for the stock market. This was within two days of the 2020 lowest price.