However, the business cycle model shows the PMIs bottomed long-term. A rise above 50.0 signals economic growth. PMIs should return to positive correlation to US GDP suggesting economic growth. This should be supportive of the model forecast for growth and […]
5% inflation as of Mar CPI report; stock market jumps
5% inflation CPI as of Mar. I was looking for as low as 5.2%. So good call. Pleased. Supports stock market forecast and interest rates. Some pick on Biden over inflation adjust wages as weak. Well, it does not matter […]
Stock Market Business Cycles Working
Biz Cycle performance SP500 stocks: 2009 correctly called bottom to today= +511%. 2020 Mar 25 called bottom to today= +82%. Oct 12 2022 called bottom to today= +17%. Calculated from lowest price of a cycle. Three types of business cycle […]
Alert-Bond Business Cycle Signals Change For Interest Rates
The business cycle model shows a peak in US interest rates that suggests limited upside in rates through 2025. Inflation likely to erode. Banking crisis likely to resolve. See model-based chart.
Inflation Rolls- Stock Market Soars
The October CPI inflation rate released November 10 was 7.8% from prior year. Interest rates dropped as investors panicked to buy bonds. The stock market surged on the news. The business cycle model turned long-term bullish the stock market a […]
2022 Bear Market
It was late 2021 when the business cycle model opinion forecast a bear market for US stocks during 2022. The model also called for a setback in PMIs that correlate with the GDP of the US economy. Overall, the model […]
Acreage Report Sets Corn On Fire
When corn won’t pop it may explode.USDA showed lower corn and bean acres than the average trader guess. A price surge is underway.Minutes before the report I told subscribers and followers (for free) that a basket of indicators leaned toward […]
The Stock Market Survived Inflation Surge
The model had forecast to be bullish from Feb 1 of this year into a summer peak for specific type of trend within a long-term bull market. Along the way, investors sold on fear from surging interest rates, followed by […]