The health of the economy can be partially assessed with use of PMIs that are published monthly. Aug PMI came in at 47.6 signaling chance of a long-term bottom. When it rises above 50.0 the economy is likely growing. GDP […]
1970s inflation like 2020s? An Analog? When will it break?
Rich Posson: ReformedAdamSmith @rich_posson Nice analog chart, but analogs end, and sometimes abruptly with no warning. It is a piece of evidence of cyclical behavior. I am a cyclist of markets and the economy. I do not see predictive evidence. […]
Don’t Miss This One- Inflation 1789-present
I show charts from the 1700s of inflation, interest rates, GDP, and the stock market. I present outlook to 2030 and insight for this decade. Keep in mind that my service assists with what will occur during a decade, a […]
Inflation 1775-2022
Inflation since 1775. Spikes above 5% lasted about a year. Less often were 3 years. And 1970s was an odd period. Mostly transitory. #inflation #InflationReductionAct Super cycles and long-term cyclical patterns (not shown) are similar as those used in the […]
As of Jul- Stock Market’s Long-term Business Cycle Up +588%
Since the lowest price in 2009, the SP500 index rose more than 500% within a long-term business cycle. The model tracks, and forecasts fluctuations along the path of the long-term economic growth and bull market of the stock market. This […]
Inflation Slides; GDP Rises; Stock Model Correct
Jun PCE inflation at 0.2% m/m; 3.0% y/y vs 3.8% prior month. The model likes the performance. No change to business cycle outlook. Unchanged forecast into Sep-Nov for stock market. Rates to calm near-term? #inflation Fed hiked as expected. As […]
Celebration Time
A celebration today.The SP500 stock index met the next bull market target.More fluctuations within a lengthy bull market -to come.The business cycle model will show the time and degree of importance of fluctuations. Assists short-term to long-term.Do you have a […]
Day to Day Inflation Nears Fed’s 2.0%
The Truflation.com daily inflation is 2.39% versus about 11.0% a year ago. The government’s CPI inflation for May was 4.0% versus about 8.0% the year prior. It seems that the biz cycle model is correct for lower inflation, it forecasts […]
Stock Market Weekly Update Jun 08 A Journey
The business cycle model forecast for 2023-24. Watch this video that was presented to subscribers. US stock market, bitcoin, dollar, oil, interest rates, bonds, gold, and the economy. See past results of the model labeling, tracking and timing of the […]
PMIs Suggest US Economy Contracted in May
However, the business cycle model shows the PMIs bottomed long-term. A rise above 50.0 signals economic growth. PMIs should return to positive correlation to US GDP suggesting economic growth. This should be supportive of the model forecast for growth and […]
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