The health of the economy can be partially assessed with use of PMIs that are published monthly. Aug PMI came in at 47.6 signaling chance of a long-term bottom. When it rises above 50.0 the economy is likely growing. GDP and jobs growth states the economy is growing, doing well, and so PMIs should catch up as confirmation. My business cycle model helps with following and timing short-term trends to long-term bull and bear markets. Identifies a period of time per decade for an economic recession and fall in stocks and interest rates and real estate.