The Truflation.com daily inflation is 2.39% versus about 11.0% a year ago. The government’s CPI inflation for May was 4.0% versus about 8.0% the year prior.
It seems that the biz cycle model is correct for lower inflation, it forecasts lower interest rates over time, and a growing economy this decade.
Last week, we learned that first-quarter GDP was 2.0% on an annual basis. I remain of the opinion that we will see 2.5% to 4.5% during the remainder of this decade.
Keep in mind that since the 1950s the economy, stock market, pay, jobs growth were better during Democrat presidents.
I discuss this and more in my podcast. I also present model-based analysis (rule-driven and cyclical) to assist investors and traders in the stock market from short-term to long-term perspectives. I include oil, gold, bitcoin, dollar, bonds- interest rates, grains, climate, and the economy.
Very pleased with performance of the economy and the stock market. The model is on track.
Get on board for the journey this decade.
Later this decade the model will seek to time the more important negative period of markets and the economy. Important enough to impact your career? Retirement?