It was late 2021 when the business cycle model opinion forecast a bear market for US stocks during 2022. The model also called for a setback in PMIs that correlate with the GDP of the US economy. Overall, the model correctly labeled most fluctuation this year suggesting an orderly bear market.
Subscribers are informed as to the time frame for an end to the stock market bear market.
Currently watching interest rates, inflation, and PMIs plus stock index price behavior for clues.
The model shows 2023-24 as bull market years. Subscribers are aware of upside potential and how the trend will progress relative to the larger intra-year swings shown by the model.
A super cycle bottom for inflation and interest rates occurred in 2020. The model called the bottom month for rates of the bond market (10-yr note as example). The model called a super cycle bottom for the stock market and the economy in 2009.
All is working well although SP500 was off 28% at one point (from the record high) a bit lower than desired but within model output parameters or targets.
The Fed’s next move?
