The October CPI inflation rate released November 10 was 7.8% from prior year.
Interest rates dropped as investors panicked to buy bonds.
The stock market surged on the news.
The business cycle model turned long-term bullish the stock market a few days after the lowest price of October. This week it called for a short-term bottom which suggested a chance for a good inflation report. The model was correct for lower interest rates this week.
In recent weeks, I told subscribers that I desired a 7.8% CPI as sign of inflation rolling over. And if it would occur as of the November 10 report, then the market could jump. And more importantly, the data and price performance would needed evidence for a developing new bull market in stocks called LT3 by the model.
The LT3 was bullish 2020-22 and bearish 2022 as expected. It should now be bullish and a leg or increment of a larger bull market this decade. The model will provide times to expect good or bad news and related price fluctuation.
I anticipated lower inflation and a growing economy for 2023, but with speed bumps or hurdles at times.
Until a violation of this year’s low (October lowest price) the SP500 should work higher.
The low of the year is a risk point for now. Hope to raise it over time.
